DirkaDirka.RedGriffins.org

Do you think the previous vassal states of the USSR are sending a message?

After a great discussion with two Ukrainians (one native, one expat US) a few months ago, I started researching how this schism between the USA and Russia began.

As far as I recall, it was right about the time we decided to take down Iraq. I heard some chatter in 2003 through my sources about the Ruskies working as contractors waiting until the tanks were rolling through Bagdhad to evacuate. I also heard rumors of Russian convoys being taken down. Not taken OUT - taken down. Crippled. In the middle of the desert. Searched. People positively identified. That sort of thing.

Obviously with the Food for Oil issue and the Iraqi arms embargo blatantly being violated by Russian and French business Operation Iraqi Freedom became a sticking point for the US/Russian relationship. Russia was/is upset with us for killing the goose that was laying the golden eggs for so long. Saddam was paying in great amounts for what would have gone for much cheaper on the open market.

Maybe that’s what prompted Bush to say he looked into Putin’s soul. Oh by the way, there’s always this: Former Russian Spy Says Government Stole $500 Million From U.N.’s Oil-For-Food Program in Iraq

An 18-month investigation into the oil-for-food corruption, led by former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker, culminated in an October 2005 report accusing more than 2,200 companies from some 40 countries of colluding with Saddam’s regime to bilk the humanitarian program in Iraq of $1.8 billion

I look into those heavy lidded and expressionless eyes of Putin’s and say… KGB. Snake. Reptile. Ruthless. Predator. And rich. Have you seen how much natural gas pipeline Russia now controls?!? EU look out.

Poland and the Ukraine ponied up the cojones to back our play with Afghanistan and Iraq, becoming very important partners in the GWOT. FOXNews.com - Ukrainian President: We Won’t Let Russia Add Us to Its Hit List -

Russians form a strong minority in Ukraine, about 17 percent of the population, and could become a flashpoint in any future confrontation with Moscow.

“Ukraine has to move towards the NATO alliance,” Yushchenko said, drumming up support before the NATO summit in December.

“It is the only way for our country to protect our national security and sovereignty. When the borders of NATO expand, so too does the region of peace and stability.”

The defense budget of Ukraine — as in other nervous Central European states — is to be raised immediately. “I want to remind all political forces in our country that shout about the possible neutral status of Ukraine that neutrality can come at a very high price,” he said, casting a nod at pro-Moscow politicians.

I digress. Basically my understanding after many beers, glasses of wine, and great conversation overlooking one of the best rooftop views of Pacific Beach I discovered that Ukraine opinion is virtually split down the middle about support for NATO.

The eastern side of the Ukraine is more economically tied to Russia, and doesn’t want to piss them off. They have more cultural ties and really don’t like the current leadership.

The western side holds an opposite opinion.

Russia Threatens Military Response if U.S., Poland Follow Through With Missile Defense Deal

Not like that really concerned Condi:

“In troubled times the most important thing is to have friends,” Rice said. “But it is more important to have friends who share your values and your aspirations and your dreams. And Poland and the United States are those kind of friends.”

…

She denounced an earlier threat from a Russian general to target NATO member Poland, possibly even with nuclear weapons, for accepting the facility.

Such comments “border on the bizarre, frankly,” Rice told reporters in Warsaw. “The Russians are losing their credibility,” she said, adding that Moscow would pay a price for its actions in Georgia, though she did not specify how.

“It’s also the case that when you threaten Poland, you perhaps forget that it is not 1988,” Rice said. “It’s 2008 and the United States has a … firm treaty guarantee to defend Poland’s territory as if it was the territory of the United States. So it’s probably not wise to throw these threats around.”

Couldn’t have said it better myself and I don’t think Colin Powell could have conveyed as well either.

Update: Add Czech Republic to that list:

“Almost immediately after the Czech Republic signed an agreement with the US to place missile defense tracking radar in its territory, oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline to the central European country were reduced to a trickle… ostensibly for technical reasons,” Sabathier said.

Update: Czech petrochem Unipetrol Q2 net profit down 80% y/y, worse than expected

Russia in early July reduced supplies of oil through the Druzhba from an agreed 500,000 tonnes to 300,000 tonnes, but said the volume would return to normal levels in August. At first citing technical problems, the pipeline operator later said it had diverted supplies to Turkey, where it could fetch a higher price.

However, Poland did come through for the Czech Republic:

Unipetrol, a unit of Poland’s PKN Orlen group, had to buy Russian oil for its refineries from tankers and transport it through Germany to the Czech Republic via the IKL pipelines; the company also bought oil from Czech state reserves, expenses that will affect Q3 results.

Nothing like a manufactured crisis to bring oil prices absolutely sky-high. Thanks most probably to Putin’s machine.